BMI View: We have revised down our forecast for 2011/12 corn harvest due to reduced yield estimations on the back of unfavourable weather conditions. However, we expect a strong rebound in output in 2012/13 because of strong plantings. For livestock, production will continue to be affected by cheap imports from Latin America, in spite of ongoing disputes over dumping from these countries on the domestic market. We have revised up our sugar production forecast for 2012/13 and expect rising prices to encourage plantings in the medium term. However, inefficiencies in the processing industry remain a concern over the coming years.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451426_south_africa_agribusiness_report_q4_2 ..
Key Forecasts
* Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 20.6% to 1.6mn tonnes. This will be
driven by strong GDP per capita growth and a steady fall in unemployment. While authorities have begun to address the problem of cheap imported poultry being 'dumped' on the local market, we believe the poultry sector will face new challenges, such as elevated feed costs.* Rice consumption growth to 2015/16: 21.3% to 897,900 tonnes. This will be supported by strong economic fundamentals. Growing demand will be mostly addressed through imports as the country doesn't not produce any major quantity of rice.
* Corn production growth to 2015/16: 28.3% to 14.0mn tonnes. The relatively high growth rate reflects the influence of base effects. Growth will be supported by an improved macroeconomic outlook and the introduction of new corn varieties that generate increased crop yields.
* Real GDP growth: 2.7% in 2012, down from 3.1% in 2011; predicted to average 3.5% over the five years to 2016. GDP per capita expected to rise to US$10,910 in 2016 (from an estimated * Unemployment: Predicted to fall to 23% in 2012 from 23.9% in 2011, then to 20.1% by 2016.
* Consumer price inflation: 5.6% in 2012, up from an average of 5.0% in 2011.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) fall to US$10.2bn in 2011/12; growth forecast to average 3.5% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Industry Outlook
We revised down our forecast for South African corn production for the 2011/12 season which started in May 2012, on the back of reduced yields estimates from the South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). We now expect corn output to reach 11.1mn tonnes (compared to our previous estimate at 12.2mn tonnes), as unfavourable weather conditions leaves yields lower.
Brazil claims that the South African Poultry Association overstated official import statistics in submissions to the investigation into poultry imports from Brazil addressed to the WTO. This came after the country filed a complaint against South Africa for the imposition of tariffs on imports of chicken. South Africa had been complaining about dumping from Brazil on the domestic market and decided in January to impose extra tariffs ranging from 46.6% to 62.9% (depending on the exporting company concerned) on whole chicken and chicken breast imports from Brazil.
Resilient global prices have encouraged production in South Africa for the 2012/13 season mainly to take advantage of opportunities offered by export markets. However, they could discourage domestic consumption, putting further downside risks to our current forecasts for 2011/12 and 2012/13.
Report Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis
- South Africa Agricultural SWOT
- South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
- South Africa Sugar Outlook
- Table: South Africa Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016
- Table: South Africa Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade, 2008-2012
- South Africa Rice Outlook
- Table: South Africa Rice Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016
- Table: South Africa Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
- South Africa Grains Outlook
- Table: South Africa Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016
- Table: South Africa Corn Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016
- Table: South Africa Barley Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016
- Table: South Africa Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade, 2008-2012
- Table: South Africa Corn Production, Consumption & Trade, 2008-2012
- Table: South Africa Barley Production, Consumption & Trade, 2008-2012
- South Africa Livestock Outlook
- Table: South Africa Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: South Africa Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Table: South Africa Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: South Africa Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: South Africa Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: South Africa Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Upstream Analysis
- Africa GM Seeds Outlook
- Table: Select Countries - Global Rank By Corn Yields In 2011/12
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
- EMEA Machinery Outlook
- South Africa Demographic Outlook
- Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Source: http://reports.pr-inside.com/new-market-research-report-south-africa-r3351094.htm
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